McEwen digs gold and silver out of the ground and sells the doré to refiners (Asahi, Auramet) at spot. It is a price-taker: revenue is ounces × metal price, and profit is the gap between that price and all-in sustaining cost (AISC). 2025 consolidated sales were $197.6M: Gold Bar, Nevada (heap-leach, $116.7M, 59%), Fox Complex, Timmins (underground, $76.0M, 38%) and El Gallo, Mexico (residual leach, $4.8M). On top of that it owns 49% of San José in Argentina (operated by Hochschild; McEwen's share of sales was $225.2M in 2025). San José is equity-accounted, so its profit arrives as dividends ($58.2M so far in 2026) rather than as revenue. On an attributable basis, San José is about half the ounces.
The second business is McEwen Copper (46.3%). Its Los Azules project in San Juan, Argentina is a large undeveloped copper deposit. The 2025 feasibility study shows 205 kt/yr of cathode in the first five years, a 21–22-year life and a $3.17B capex. It is pre-FID and is targeting a ~$4B financing and a ~$300M IPO. 2026 guidance is 109–120k GEOs consolidated plus 59–64k attributable from San José, at a consolidated AISC of $2,500–2,750. The plan is to reach 250–300k GEOs by 2030. Key sensitivities: the gold price, AISC inflation, Fox ramp execution (Stock 2027, Grey Fox 2029), Argentine policy (export duties, capital controls, RIGI) and copper for Los Azules.
Strip out the copper and the stock is fairly priced as a gold miner, with nothing left over. Value Fox, Gold Bar, San José and El Gallo mine by mine at today's $4,150 gold, then subtract corporate G&A, debt and reclamation. That gives ~$14.83/share of gold-only equity NAV. The stock is $15.87. Read another way: at spot gold, the price gives Los Azules and the royalty a value of zero. If you hold the copper stake at our risked value instead, the price implies gold of about $3,116/oz, 25% below spot and below mid-2025 levels.
The copper stake is not worth zero, even on punitive assumptions. Start from the 2025 feasibility study (after-tax NPV8 $2.94B at $4.35 copper; $4.97B at $5.22). Run it at a $5.00 long-term deck, which is well under today's $6.51 spot. Take $0.5B off for capex creep, since the financing package is now ~$4B against a $3.17B estimate. Then haircut the result by 60% for pre-FID, Argentina and financing dilution. McEwen's 46.3% is still worth ~$733M. With the 1.25% NSR, that is ~$12.54/share. Two outside marks bracket that figure. The October 2024 $30/share financing implies $457M, and reports in August 2026 put McEwen Copper at "more than $2B", which would make the stake worth $926M or more.
The gold side is better than the tape suggests, though it is not clean. Q2 was a miss: EPS $0.14 against $0.24–0.28 expected, revenue $59.2M against $65.5M, and Gold Bar guidance was cut to 30–33k oz at a $2,900–3,200 AISC. Gold Bar is marginal at that cost, and the model gives it only ~$136M. The value sits in Fox. Fox guidance was raised to 20–23k oz. Stock starts mining in Q4 2026, and the Grey Fox PFS (June 2026) shows a $841M after-tax NPV5 at $4,500 gold, taking the complex toward ~90–100k oz/yr from 2029. Our Fox value of ~$753M is roughly Grey Fox's PFS value at spot, with Stock included almost for free. San José paid $58.2M of dividends YTD, against a $40–50M plan.
What changed since the Aug 4 memo (base ~$28 at $18.58): (1) Method. The memo valued the gold business at 13× normalized earnings in a sum-of-the-parts. This is a mine-by-mine NAV on a live deck, with a risked Los Azules study NPV. (2) Base value is down 5% to $26.59. Gold has slipped from a $4,454 Q2 realized price to $4,150 spot, Gold Bar was cut, and there are 6M more shares (55.5M at YE25 → 61.4M). Grey Fox and $6.51 copper partly offset that. (3) The stock is down 15% to $15.87, so the discount widened from ~34% to 40%. (4) The catalysts have slipped but are still alive. The FID work program is 27% complete, with the balance targeted for Q4 2026. Construction is targeted for early 2027 and first copper for 2030. The IPO is "as early as Q4 2026", subject to market conditions. The prior memo's 25%-of-float short and 10.5 days-to-cover were not re-verified, so check them before sizing.
Call: UNDERVALUED — speculative accumulate. Accumulate ≤$17. Build a full satellite position ≤$15; the ~$14.80 gold-only NAV at spot is the floor. Trim above $26 (base NAV), and take most of it off above $35 unless Los Azules has reached FID. Holders: hold through the Q3 print on Nov 5 (after close) and the Q4 FID/IPO window. A priced IPO is the event that forces the market to mark the copper stake. Size it at ≤2–3% of capital. The bear case ($3,400 gold, $4.35 copper, Fox output −15%) is ~$7, so this has to be money you can watch halve. Options: own it by selling Jan-2027 $15 cash-secured puts, or use a $15/$12.50 bull put spread for defined risk. Either one sells the inflated pre-earnings IV and sets your entry at the gold-only floor.
| HIGH | Gold price (long). Operating leverage is extreme: consolidated AISC ran $2,932 in Q2. Gold ±20% moves NAV from $18 to $35/share. At $3,400 gold, Gold Bar is shut-in economics and Fox margins halve. |
| HIGH | Argentina (long policy stability). San José dividends and all of Los Azules depend on capital controls, export duties and RIGI incentives holding. Together they are ~50% of gross asset NAV. |
| HIGH | Los Azules execution and financing (long copper, short dilution). The project is pre-FID and needs ~$4B: ~$1.2B of equity, a $300M IPO and project debt. If McEwen does not fund its share, its 46.3% gets diluted. Capex escalation beyond the $0.5B we deduct would cut the stake value. |
| MED | Cost inflation (short AISC). Gold Bar is running a $3,197 AISC against $1,792 a year ago. AISC ±10% moves NAV by ±$3/share. Royalties and wages rise with the gold price; the model links ~10% of any gold move into AISC. |
| MED | Fox ramp (Stock 2027, Grey Fox 2029). Fox is the largest single asset (~$753M). A 20% production shortfall costs ~$2.60/share. Underground ramps routinely slip. |
| LOW | Balance sheet. $105M of cash and securities against $130M of debt principal. The $110M 5.25% convert (2030) converts at $11.25, and a capped call removes dilution up to $17.30. No near-term maturity; the term loan amortizes from 2027. |
| Real disc. rate ↓ / gold → | $2,900 | $3,300 | $3,700 | $4,150 | $4,500 | $5,000 |
| 5% NA · 8% LatAm | $13.72 | $18.73 | $23.25 | $28.34 | $32.30 | $37.95 |
| 6% NA · 9% LatAm | $13.51 | $18.32 | $22.60 | $27.42 | $31.17 | $36.53 |
| 7% NA · 10% LatAm | $13.32 | $17.94 | $22.01 | $26.59 | $30.15 | $35.23 |
| 8% NA · 11% LatAm | $13.16 | $17.60 | $21.47 | $25.82 | $29.21 | $34.05 |
| 10% NA · 13% LatAm | $12.87 | $16.95 | $20.52 | $24.48 | $27.56 | $31.96 |
| Fox output ↓ / gold → | $2,900 | $3,300 | $3,700 | $4,150 | $4,500 | $5,000 |
| 0.70× PFS-based path (63 koz/yr peak) | $11.89 | $15.62 | $19.07 | $22.70 | $25.52 | $29.54 |
| 0.85× PFS-based path (76 koz/yr peak) | $12.61 | $16.83 | $20.54 | $24.64 | $27.83 | $32.39 |
| 1.00× PFS-based path (90 koz/yr peak) | $13.32 | $17.94 | $22.01 | $26.59 | $30.15 | $35.23 |
| 1.15× PFS-based path (103 koz/yr peak) | $14.04 | $18.98 | $23.48 | $28.53 | $32.46 | $38.08 |
| LA risk factor ↓ / copper → | $4.35 | $5.00 | $5.75 | $6.51 |
| 0.00 (stake worth zero) | $15.20 | $15.26 | $15.32 | $15.39 |
| 0.25 | $19.87 | $22.44 | $25.42 | $28.43 |
| 0.40 | $22.49 | $26.59 | $31.31 | $36.10 |
| 0.55 | $25.12 | $30.73 | $37.20 | $43.77 |
| 0.70 | $27.74 | $34.87 | $43.10 | $51.43 |
A going-concern FCFF does not fit McEwen. (1) Its assets are depleting. Each mine has a finite reserve life (Gold Bar reserves 168 koz, San José attributable ~102 koz Au + 5.2 Moz Ag), so a perpetual-growth terminal value would capitalize ounces that do not exist. (2) Roughly half the value (San José, McEwen Copper) is equity-accounted and never shows up in consolidated EBIT or FCFF. (3) Consolidated earnings are a commodity-price output. A 5-year average GAAP operating margin is −49% (2021–25, dragged down by pre-2023 Los Azules exploration), and 5-year average EBITDA is −$25M. Normalizing on that would value a company that just printed $67.0M of H1-2026 Adjusted EBITDA (San José dividends flow outside it) at nothing. The resource-name rule applies instead: NAV on a stated price deck, with the deck itself as the master sensitivity.
The deck is the normalization. Base gold is spot ($4,150), not the $4,454 Q2 realized price or the January highs. The bear case tests $3,400, about mid-2025 levels. Los Azules is valued at a $5.00 long-term copper price, 23% under spot, because first cathode is 2030 or later.
| Asset | Method | $M | $/sh | % NAV |
| Fox Complex (Froome+Stock+Grey Fox) | Mine DCF, 7% real; Grey Fox PFS profile, AISC $2,500 | $752 | $11.62 | 38% |
| Gold Bar (Nevada) | Mine DCF, 7%; 30 koz/yr to 2031, AISC $2,950 | $136 | $2.10 | 7% |
| San José 49% (Argentina) | Attrib. DCF, 10%; 60→35 koz, 55% silver, 35% tax | $209 | $3.23 | 10% |
| El Gallo / Fenix Ph.1 (Mexico) | Mine DCF, 10%; 20 koz/yr 2028–34 (est.) | $93 | $1.44 | 5% |
| McEwen Copper 46.3% (Los Azules, risked) | FS NPV8 @ $5.00 Cu − $0.5B capex creep, ×0.40 risk | $733 | $11.31 | 37% |
| Los Azules 1.25% NSR royalty (risked) | Royalty DCF 8%, after 25% tax, ×0.60 | $79 | $1.23 | 4% |
| Corporate G&A (10 yrs capitalized) | $30M/yr, 7% | −$222 | −$3.43 | 0% |
| Asset NAV | $1,781 | $27.49 | ||
| Net financial position (see bridge) | −$59 | −$0.91 | ||
| Equity NAV | $1,722 | $26.59 |
| Year | koz | Revenue | AISC/oz | Margin | Cash tax | Growth capex | FCF | PV @7% |
| Q4 2026 | 6 | $24.9 | $2,500 | $9.9 | −$2.5 | −$12.0 | −$4.6 | −$4.5 |
| 2027 | 45 | $186.8 | $2,500 | $74.2 | −$18.6 | −$70.0 | −$14.3 | −$13.6 |
| 2028 | 60 | $249.0 | $2,500 | $99.0 | −$24.8 | −$80.0 | −$5.8 | −$5.1 |
| 2029 | 90 | $373.5 | $2,500 | $148.5 | −$37.1 | −$24.0 | $87.4 | $72.7 |
| 2030 | 90 | $373.5 | $2,500 | $148.5 | −$37.1 | $0.0 | $111.4 | $86.7 |
| 2031 | 90 | $373.5 | $2,500 | $148.5 | −$37.1 | $0.0 | $111.4 | $81.0 |
| 2032 | 90 | $373.5 | $2,500 | $148.5 | −$37.1 | $0.0 | $111.4 | $75.7 |
| 2033 | 90 | $373.5 | $2,500 | $148.5 | −$37.1 | $0.0 | $111.4 | $70.7 |
| 2034 | 90 | $373.5 | $2,500 | $148.5 | −$37.1 | $0.0 | $111.4 | $66.1 |
| 2035 | 87 | $361.0 | $2,500 | $143.5 | −$35.9 | $0.0 | $107.7 | $59.7 |
| 2036 | 87 | $361.0 | $2,500 | $143.5 | −$35.9 | $0.0 | $107.7 | $55.8 |
| 2037 | 87 | $361.0 | $2,500 | $143.5 | −$35.9 | $0.0 | $107.7 | $52.2 |
| 2038 | 87 | $361.0 | $2,500 | $143.5 | −$35.9 | $0.0 | $107.7 | $48.8 |
| 2039 | 87 | $361.0 | $2,500 | $143.5 | −$35.9 | $0.0 | $107.7 | $45.6 |
| 2040 | 87 | $361.0 | $2,500 | $143.5 | −$35.9 | $0.0 | $107.7 | $42.6 |
| 2041 | 40 | $166.0 | $2,500 | $66.0 | −$16.5 | $0.0 | $49.5 | $18.3 |
| Market cap at $15.87 × 61.36M basic | $974M |
| Equity NAV (base) | $1,722M |
| P/NAV (junior/mid-tier producers typically 0.6–0.9× spot NAV; developers 0.3–0.5×) | 0.57× |
| Gold-only equity NAV (ops − G&A + net financial position) | $910M · $14.83/sh |
| Peer-multiple value: 0.8× gold NAV + copper stake at private marks ($457M Oct-24 round → $926M at reported >$2B) | $19.31 – $26.95 |
| Reverse NAV: gold price that justifies $15.87 (LA at base) · LA value at spot gold | $3,116/oz · ≈$0 |
| Street: 6 Buy / 0 Hold / 0 Sell (Robinhood), mean target $31.40 (range $28–37) | Base is 15% below mean |
| Risk-free · equity risk premium | 5.20% · 4.40% |
| Unlevered beta (precious-metals miners, est.) | 1.00 |
| Market D/E (debt principal $130M / mkt cap $974M), 21% tax | 13.4% |
| Levered beta → cost of equity | 1.106 → 10.07% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt (convert 6.33% eff., term loan 11.16% eff.; blended) → after-tax | 7.1% → 5.6% |
| Nominal WACC (11.8% debt weight) | 9.5% |
| Real rate applied to flat deck (− ~2.5% inflation): North America | 7.0% |
| Argentina / Mexico (+3pt country premium) | 10.0% |
| Los Azules: feasibility study NPV8 (real), then a 0.40 development/jurisdiction risk factor | 8% × 0.40 |
| Los Azules 100% NPV8 at $5.00 Cu, after −$500M capex adj. | $3,957M |
| Asset NAV (mines + copper stake + royalty − G&A) | $1,781.0 |
| + Cash & equivalents | $78.9 |
| + Marketable securities | $12.8 |
| + Paragon 26.9–27.3% stake (fair value) | $13.9 |
| + Loan receivable from McEwen Copper | $13.6 |
| − Term loan (ARCA, 9.75%) | ($20.0) |
| − Convertible notes 5.25% 2030 (principal; conv. $11.25, cap $17.30) | ($110.0) |
| − Asset retirement obligations (current + LT) | ($46.2) |
| − Lease liabilities | ($1.8) |
| Equity NAV | $1,722.2 |
| ÷ Diluted shares (61.36M basic + 3.42M net convert) | 64.78M |
| NAV per share | $26.59 |