Throw out the screen's growth number. GAAP EPS went from $0.72 (2024) to $2.77 (2025), +285% — but 2024 was depressed by the Q4-24 balance-sheet repositioning (securities sold at a loss, $723M of mortgages sold, a $(1.03) Q4 loss), and 2023 by the same playbook (mortgage-sale loss $136M, securities loss $59M, FDIC special assessment). On an adjusted basis EPS went $2.27 → $2.38 → $2.77: +16%, not +282%. The low PEG is an artifact; this is not a growth stock. It is a ~12.5% ROTCE bank — exactly what its five-year adjusted record says (12.5%).
At that return, the stock is modestly cheap. Cost of equity 10.0%, 3% growth: a 12.5% ROTCE justifies 1.35x tangible book = $29.89; the excess-return model, crediting the near-term 13–13.5% run-rate (Q2 adj. ROATCE 13.95%) fading to 12.5%, gives $31.01; the DDM gives $27.94. Today's 1.27x TBV prices in ~11.5% sustained ROTCE — a hair below what the bank has actually earned in every clean year since 2021. Forward return on normalized payout ≈ 10.5% vs a 10.0% hurdle: you're paid, a little.
The rate setup leans its way. Management's own disclosure: +100bp ramp → NII +1.9% (≈+$0.12 EPS); −100bp → −1.2%. With the 10Y at ~5.2% and a Fed hiking bias, the NIM (3.17% in Q2, ~3.10% core ex-purchase-accounting) has a tailwind, and the 2023–24 repositioning already flushed the low-yield securities. 2026 guide: NII +19–21%, loans +18–20% (ANC-inclusive). American National ($5.3B assets, $604M all-stock, 30% cost saves, 1.9% TBV dilution, ~2.25-yr earnback) closed 4/1 and converts this month.
But it's not a screaming buy — the tornado says NIM and credit cost are each worth ±$5/share, and both have reasons to wobble: CRE is 24.8% of loans ($9.0B; multifamily 10.7%, office 2.2%), nonaccruals jumped to $150M from $111M with ANC, Q2 NCOs were 26bp vs 7bp in Q1, and C&I is being grown 20%+ — fast growth is where tomorrow's charge-offs are born. CET1 10.47% sits at the low end of the 10–10.75% target, so no buybacks until it rebuilds.
Call: Hold; accumulate below ~$26 (≈1.17x TBV, bear-plus), get aggressive under $24.5 (bear). Trim above ~$34 (≈10% over base; bull is $37). Options: after the Oct 22 (after close) print, sell a 25/22.5 bull put spread or cash-secured $25 puts 30–45 DTE — the short strike sits at bear-case value with a 3.4% dividend behind it. Watch on the print: core NIM ex-accretion, ANC conversion costs, nonaccrual trend.
| MED | Commercial real estate — $9.04B (24.8% of loans): $6.49B investor CRE, $2.55B construction; multifamily 10.7%, office $795M (86% suburban, DSCR 1.24x). Short: higher-for-longer rates at refinance; CRE NCOs 12bp in Q2. |
| MED | Credit normalization / growth — NCOs 26bp Q2 (7bp Q1); nonaccruals $150M (+36% q/q, ANC-driven); C&I +20–22%. Each +10bp NCO ≈ −0.7pt ROTCE. |
| MED | Integration (ANC) — systems conversion Oct-26, merger costs $60M (up from $55M), auto-dealer reserve $26M, loan marks swung to a $16.7M markdown. |
| MED | Capital — CET1 10.47%, TCE 8.27%, Tier 1 leverage 8.99%; no buybacks Q2. Short: long-end yields (AFS AOCI on ~$10B investment book hits TBV). |
| LOW | NII / rates — modestly asset-sensitive (+100bp → +1.9% NII). Long: Fed hiking bias. Deposit beta is the offset; LDR 91%. |
| Core NIM (→ ROTCE) ↓ / CoE → | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 11.2% |
| 2.80% (9.8%) | $28.12 | $25.45 | $23.11 | $21.39 | $19.81 |
| 2.95% (11.2%) | $33.05 | $29.86 | $27.06 | $25.00 | $23.11 |
| 3.10% (12.5%) | $37.98 | $34.27 | $31.01 | $28.62 | $26.42 |
| 3.25% (13.8%) | $42.91 | $38.68 | $34.96 | $32.23 | $29.72 |
| 3.40% (15.2%) | $47.85 | $43.09 | $38.91 | $35.84 | $33.02 |
| Year | GAAP EPS | Adj. EPS | YE TBVPS | GAAP ROTCE | Adj. ROTCE | One-offs |
| 2021 | 2.18 | 2.18 | 18.19 | 12.0% | 12.0% | |
| 2022 | 2.34 | 2.34 | 18.05 | 12.9% | 12.9% | AOCI drag on TBV |
| 2023 | 1.13 | 2.27 | 19.06 | 6.1% | 12.2% | Q4-23: $136M mortgage-sale loss, $59M securities loss, $31M FDIC special |
| 2024 | 0.72 | 2.38 | 19.98 | 3.7% | 12.2% | Q4-24: securities repositioning + $723M mortgage sale; net loss $(1.03) in Q4; equity raise |
| 2025 | 2.77 | 2.77 | 22.33 | 13.1% | 13.1% | clean year; base for the "+282%" |
| TTM Q2-26 | 2.86 | 2.96 | 22.15 | 12.9% | 13.3% | Q2-26: $24.5M ANC merger cost ($0.10) |
| 5-yr avg 2021–25 | 9.6% | 12.5% | normalized base set at 12.5% |
Deposits and borrowings are ASB's raw material, not its capital structure — there's no meaningful WACC or enterprise value, and "reinvestment" is the equity needed to keep CET1 at 10–10.75% as loans grow. So equity is valued directly: justified P/TBV = (ROTCE−g)/(CoE−g), an excess-return model on tangible book (goodwill/CDI from ANC and prior deals earn nothing extra), and a DDM cross-check.
| Year | ROTCE | TBV (start) | EPS | Payout | Excess return | PV |
| Yr 1 (2027) | 13.5% | $22.15 | $2.99 | $1.88 | $0.77 | $0.70 |
| Yr 2 (2028) | 13.2% | $23.26 | $3.08 | $1.92 | $0.75 | $0.62 |
| Yr 3 (2029) | 13.0% | $24.42 | $3.17 | $1.95 | $0.72 | $0.54 |
| Yr 4 (2030) | 12.8% | $25.64 | $3.27 | $1.99 | $0.69 | $0.47 |
| Yr 5 (2031) | 12.5% | $26.92 | $3.37 | $2.02 | $0.66 | $0.41 |
| Terminal | (12.5% − 10.04%) × TBV $28.27 ÷ (10.04% − 3%) | TV $9.88 | $6.12 | |||
| Risk-free (10Y UST ~5.2%) | 5.20% |
| Mature ERP | 4.40% |
| Beta (regional-bank bottom-up) | 1.10 |
| Cost of equity | 10.04% |
| Stable growth | 3.00% |
| Book / tangible book per share | $28.85 / $22.15 |
| P/B · P/TBV · P/E on TTM adj. EPS $2.96 | 0.98x · 1.27x · 9.5x |
| Q2-26 NII / NIM (FTE) / noninterest income | $370.0M / 3.17% / $80.4M |
| Q2-26 EPS GAAP / adj.; adj. efficiency | $0.63 / $0.73; 52.9% |
| Loans / deposits / LDR | $36.5B / $39.9B / 91.3% |
| ACL / loans; nonaccruals; NCOs (Q2 ann.) | 1.36%; $150.0M; 0.26% |
| CET1 / Tier 1 leverage / TCE | 10.47% / 8.99% / 8.27% |
| Shares outstanding (post-ANC, +23.3M) | 188.7M · mkt cap ≈$5.32B |
| Preferred (excluded from common) | $194M |
| Dividend | $0.24/qtr · 3.4% yield |
| 52-week range; next earnings | $23.86 – $32.46; Oct 22 (pm) |