9 of 12 fail once earnings are normalized. Low PEG takes peak earnings growth at face value. Each failure has a specific cause: a wartime commodity spread (CF, VIST), a tungsten price-timing gain (KMT), memory-cycle pricing (AVT), a one-off tariff refund (TILE), a peak-ROE market cycle (GS), leverage plus a debt-funded dividend (AMBP), adjusted-EPS flattery (EVTC), and buyback-driven EPS on flat revenue (SCSC).
Three survive. IAG (ICAGY) is the only real buy: about 39% below base, priced as if the fuel shock is permanent, with a balance sheet that funds a ~9% shareholder yield. RNR and ASB are modestly cheap, quality-at-a-fair-price holds rather than deep value. Of all the screen's "growth" signals, ASB's +282% EPS was the most misleading.
Action: Buy ICAGY below $12, either the ADR or IAG in London. Accumulate RNR below $320 and ASB below $26. Take the rest off the long list. The cleanest defined-risk expressions after earnings are covered calls or bear call spreads on GS, CF, AVT and KMT. Most names report between late October and early November, so refresh after the prints.
| Ticker | Price | Base | Bear–Bull | Prob-wtd | vs base | Verdict | Thesis · method · call |
| ICAGY IAG (airlines) | $10.85 | $17.70 | $6–$23 | $14.97 | -39% | UNDERVALUED Risk HIGH | Market capitalizes the 2026 Iran fuel shock as permanent; 3.4x normalized EBITDA, 0.6x lease-adj leverage, ~9% yield via buyback+div. FCFF, leases as debt, ex-COVID normalized · BUY < $12; trim > $16.5 |
| RNR RenaissanceRe | $341.59 | $387.21 | $199–$563 | $369.99 | -12% | SLIGHTLY CHEAP Risk MED-HIGH | TTM P/E flattered by light cats + reserve releases; normalized 13.3% ROE on 5%+ float yields still worth ~1.4x BV. Book + excess return, normalized cat load · Accumulate < $320; trim > $420 |
| ASB Associated Banc-Corp | $28.21 | $31.01 | $24–$37 | $30.95 | -9% | SLIGHTLY CHEAP Risk MEDIUM | +282% EPS is a 2024 repositioning-loss base effect; a 12.5% ROTCE bank at 1.27x TBV, asset-sensitive into hikes, CRE 25%. Excess return on TBV, normalized ROTCE · Accumulate < $26; trim > $34 |
| EVTC Evertec | $30.55 | $26.66 | $8–$39 | $25.15 | +15% | SLIGHTLY RICH Risk HIGH | Screen uses adjusted EPS; GAAP P/E 18x, levered equity, Popular MSA reprices 2028. FCFF, software capex charged, SBC expensed · Hold; buy < $23; trim > $34 |
| VIST Vista Energy | $69.88 | $59.64 | $14–$108 | $65.84 | +17% | OVERVALUED Risk VERY HIGH | Prices ~$74 LT Brent; spot $105 is a war premium on a backwardated curve; Argentina risk under-priced. Production FCFF on Brent strip, Argentina CRP; PV-10 check · Trim > $72, collar; buy < $52 |
| SCSC ScanSource | $60.16 | $48.23 | $37–$58 | $48.07 | +25% | OVERVALUED Risk MEDIUM | Flat revenue for a decade; EPS growth is buybacks; price already = bull case (4%+ margin forever). FCFF, 10-yr normalized EBITA, WC reinvestment · Hold; buy ≤ $48; trim > $65 |
| CF CF Industries | $120.72 | $95.41 | $41–$126 | $93.63 | +27% | OVERVALUED Risk MED-HIGH | Price embeds ~$3.36B EBITDA — above mgmt's 2030 target; wartime N spread treated as permanent. FCFF on mgmt mid-cycle EBIT; N×gas grid · Avoid; buy $90–98; sell $95–100 puts |
| GS Goldman Sachs | $870.31 | $622.00 | $478–$771 | $623.00 | +40% | OVERVALUED Risk MED-HIGH | Blowout Q3 but 2.34x book prices a peak ~20% ROE forever; through-cycle mid-teens = ~$620. Excess return on BV; SOTP; Gordon · Trim; buy < $620 |
| TILE Interface | $34.87 | $23.74 | $18–$28 | $23.37 | +47% | OVERVALUED Risk MEDIUM | Record margin incl. one-off tariff refund; price needs 16% margin never earned. FCFF, 10-yr clean EBIT, leases+pension debt · Avoid; trim > $30; buy < $21 |
| KMT Kennametal | $31.10 | $20.96 | $14–$37 | $24.54 | +48% | OVERVALUED Risk HIGH | +271% EPS = $316M tungsten price-timing gain that FY27 guide already reverses; normalized ROIC ≈ WACC. FCFF, 10-yr adj EBIT, APT-driven · Avoid/trim; buy $18–21 |
| AVT Avnet | $95.39 | $56.05 | $40–$80 | $58.00 | +70% | OVERVALUED Risk HIGH | Sales 32% above trend (memory pricing); through-cycle ROIC < WACC → worth ~book. FCFF, 10-yr normalized EBIT, WC reinvestment · Trim/avoid; buy ≤ $55 |
| AMBP Ardagh Metal Pkg | $4.27 | $2.32 | $0–$4 | $2.56 | +84% | OVERVALUED Risk HIGH | 5.2x levered, negative book; 9% dividend debt-funded; price leans on parent sale process. FCFF, equity as levered residual · Sell > $3.50; buy < $2.50 |