← Research Projects

Valuation update — 14 names

Prices intraday 10/15/26 · sorted cheapest to richest vs base · Rf 5.20%, ERP 4.40%
TickerPriceBasePx vs baseBear–BullProb-wtdVerdictRiskNext earnings
MUX$15.87$26.59-40%$7.16–$40.97$30.11UNDERVALUEDHigh2026-11-05
Accumulate ≤$17 (gold-only NAV ~$14.80 is the floor at spot); full position ≤$15; hold through the Nov 5 Q3 print and the McEwen Copper IPO/FID window; trim above $26 (base NAV), exit most above $35 unless FID is done. Options: sell Jan-2027 $15 cash-secured puts or a $15/$12.50 bull put spread into the pre-earnings IV. Size as a ≤2–3% satellite.
ICAGY$11.05$17.64-37%$8.03–$21.16$15.17UNDERVALUEDHigh2026-11-06
BUY/accumulate below $12; trim above ~$16.5; holders keep and add toward $10. Defined-risk expression: long ADR plus a small long-oil hedge via OTM BNO/Brent call options (no listed ADR options). Q3 results 6 Nov 2026.
ASB$28.86$31.01-7%$24.44–$37.35$30.95SLIGHTLY CHEAPMedium2026-10-22 (after close)
Hold; no chasing above ~$30 into the Oct 22 print. Accumulate <$26 (~1.17x TBV), aggressive <$24.5 (bear). Trim >$34. Post-print: 25/22.5 bull put spread or cash-secured $25 puts, 30-45 DTE.
FAF$63.68$68.29-7%$33.79–$98.36$73.67SLIGHTLY CHEAPMedium2026-10-21 (after close)
Slightly cheap: accumulate <$61 (justified P/B), starter at $63-64 fine for income; trim >$80. Holders hold (div raised 11% to $0.61/qtr). Post-print (Oct 21 AMC): 60/55 bull put spread or CSP $60, 30-45 DTE.
TXT$74.91$66.78+12%$42.61–$91.01$66.80SLIGHTLY RICHMedium2026-10-29 (before open)
No new money above ~$70; accumulate below $62, aggressive starter <=$67. Holders: hold for separation/MV-75 optionality, trim $85+. Post-print: covered calls $85 Dec/Jan for holders; CSPs at $65 for new money; $85/$90 bear call spread for a short view. Q3 Oct 29 BMO.
EVTC$31.16$26.67+17%$8.60–$38.69$25.16OVERVALUEDHighQ3'26 expected early Nov 2026 (not yet announced)
AVOID new money at $31; accumulate below ~$23. Holders trim $33-35 or write $35 covered calls (Dec/Jan). CSPs at $25 strike 60-90 DTE to get paid waiting; defined-risk bearish: small Dec/Jan $35/$40 bear call spread (thin options, limits at mid). No naked calls.
VIST$70.40$59.69+18%$16.22–$109.90$66.83OVERVALUEDVery High2026-10-28 (after close; webcast 10/29)
No new longs at $70. Holders trim $70-72 and zero-cost collar (sell ~$85C / buy ~$60P, Jan-27). Accumulate <~$52 or on a Brent reset into the $70s. Non-holders: CSPs at $55, 60-90 DTE; bearish only via defined-risk bear call spread ($85/$90 Jan-27).
SCSC$59.38$48.23+23%$37.35–$58.48$48.07OVERVALUEDMedium2026-11-05 (pre-market, unverified)
HOLD / no new money. Accumulate <=$48, add aggressively <=$42, trim >$65. Holders: ~10% OTM covered call (~$65) after the Nov 5 print; no naked shorts.
ECG$108.94$88.10+24%$53.60–$134.95$91.19OVERVALUEDMedium-HighQ3'26 early-to-mid Nov 2026 (est. 11/3 per StockAnalysis; TipRanks 11/11; unconfirmed)
AVOID at $109; accumulate below ~$80; starter ~$88 only if Q3 confirms backlog >$4.5B and margin >=7.5%. Holders trim $115-125 or write covered calls. Options: Dec/Jan $130/$140 bear call spread, or $80 CSPs to get paid waiting for entry.
ACLS$114.08$71.14+60%$48.28–$88.50$74.30OVERVALUEDHigh2026-11-03 (BMO, tentative)
AVOID above ~$85; accumulate <$72 (base); aggressive starter <=$75 (prob-wtd $74). Holders trim $120-130+ / into a SAMR-approval spike. Covered calls $130-135 or post-print bear call spread above $135-140; CSPs $75-80 to own it lower. No naked shorts.
AMBP$4.63$2.35+97%$0.59–$4.12$2.60OVERVALUEDHigh~2026-10-22 (Ardagh Group confirmed 10/22; AMP date unconfirmed)
Holders trim/exit into $4.60-5.00; avoid above ~$3.50; accumulate only below ~$2.50. No outright short (takeout at 9-10x = $5-6). Defined-risk bear: Jan-27 $4.50/$3.50 put spread; holders waiting on sale: Jan-27 $5 covered calls.
HWM$217.50$83.59+160%$40.80–$104.24$83.87OVERVALUEDMedium-High2026-10-29 (before open)
AVOID new money. Accumulate only <$130 (blue-sky value); starter defensible <=$160. Holders trim to core; covered calls $240-250 strikes or zero-cost collar after Oct 29 print; defined-risk bear call spread above $250-260 post-print. No naked shorts.
KLAC$172.90$59.07+193%$36.36–$80.91$64.55OVERVALUEDHigh2026-10-28 (after close)
AVOID new money; value entry <$65, aggressive starter only <~$95. Holders trim $200-210, core <=2%. Post-print (10/28) covered calls or 30-45 DTE bear call spread short ~$210-215; never naked short.
VOYG$25.93$4.15+525%$-1.73–$10.69$6.31OVERVALUEDVery High2026-11-02 (after close)
AVOID/SELL. No new money above the bull case (~$10.7); value support only in single digits (prob-weighted ~$6). Holders sell into strength toward $31-33. Defined-risk: Dec/Jan $30/$35 bear call spread (thin chain) or covered calls $30-32. Never short naked.
Each ticker links to its full report in this folder. Educational analysis, not investment advice.